Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Gianforte and Democratic challenger Ryan Busse both bested opponents in their party’s respective primaries Tuesday, setting up November’s general election contest for the Montana governor’s seat.
With roughly 52% of votes counted shortly before 10:45 p.m. on Tuesday, Gianforte led his Republican opponent Tanner Smith, a first-term lawmaker from Lakeside, by 53 percentage points, or about 50,000 votes. The vote count showed Busse with a 42 percentage point, or roughly 26,600-vote, lead over Democrat Jim Hunt, a Helena attorney.
Libertarian candidate Kaiser Leib, a software developer from Helena, was unchallenged in his party’s primary and will proceed to the general election.
The 2024 election marks Gianforte’s third campaign for the governor’s seat in Montana. Busse has never run for or held elected office. Both campaigns cast their outcomes as victories in Tuesday evening statements — and the start of a new chapter in the 2024 campaign.
“As governor, I’ve defended our way of life, created good-paying Montana jobs, boosted opportunities for Montanans, and delivered meaningful relief to address Biden’s affordability crisis. I’m committed to continue delivering for Montanans in a second term,” Gianforte said in an evening statement released by his campaign.
Montanans, he continued, face “a clear choice” between candidates leading up to the November election. “We can continue with our positive momentum and common sense conservative agenda, or we can turn the reins over to unhinged, unpredictable far-left activism that’s out of touch with Montana and will undermine our way of life,” Gianforte said.
Busse responded to the Tuesday election results by highlighting the number of Republican primary voters, 23% in the 10:45 p.m. vote count, who opted for Smith over Gianforte.
“Tonight Republican voters sent a clear message to New Jersey billionaire Greg Gianforte: the last three-and-a-half years have been a trainwreck under his failed leadership. And that’s unfair to trainwrecks,” Busse said in an emailed statement. “Montanans got stuck with Gianforte’s higher property taxes, his housing crisis, his health care crisis, less access to public land and wildlife, and his attacks on women’s freedoms. It’s time to get your Montana back.”
In a statement delivered from a campaign spokesperson shortly before 9 p.m., Smith did not concede to Gianforte based on the early vote counts, including those cast by mail-in ballots.
“Our True Conservative base, people like myself, vote in person on Election Day. We will ride this thing out until the last county posts counts,” Smith said.
Hunt rallied behind Busse in a statement soon after his race was called, echoing the critique that Gianforte was “out of touch” with issues facing Montanans and that Busse would represent “real Montana values” in Helena.
Since Busse announced his intention to oust Gianforte from office in 2023, he has campaigned with unbridled criticism of the governor. Gianforte’s office and its allies have dismissed the broadsides as “liberal talking points.”
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Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse held the first major press conference of his campaign this week, laying out some basic legislative priorities and directing astringent criticism at incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte.
Gianforte, a Bozeman tech entrepreneur, former U.S. congressman and Montana’s first Republican governor in 16 years, has consistently pledged to be a fiscally and socially conservative leader of state government. During the past two legislative sessions, Gianforte has touted the passage of an array of Republican-backed laws, including abortion restrictions, business-friendly tax cuts and support for parents seeking private education options.
Busse, a public lands advocate and former gun executive turned critic of the firearms industry, has placed property tax reform, abortion rights and responsible management of state government agencies at the center of his campaign. He has consistently tried to stimulate voter angst on those and other issues by framing Gianforte as unrelatably wealthy, a threat to constitutional privacy and a destabilizing leader for key state functions such as Medicaid and the Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks.
Lee Banville, director of the University of Montana’s School of Journalism and a political analyst, said Busse’s campaign is working hard to create a negative association with Gianforte’s record, as well as boost the challenger’s name recognition statewide.
“Busse has to make the argument for why to replace this guy. It’s not enough to say, ‘I have great ideas about how to make housing more affordable or addressing the property tax issue,’” Banville said. “It has to be, “I can do this and he’s bad.’”
Gianforte, meanwhile, is campaigning as a pragmatic Republican governor who wants to steer policy changes through Helena, Banville said, and is largely ignoring Busse’s candidacy.
“The Busse campaign is about Gianforte and his failings. The Gianforte campaign, to a large degree, is not about Busse at all. It’s about business development and the accomplishments of the last three-and-a-half or four years, and why he’s the right conservative choice for Montana,” Banville said.
State Republican Party leader Don “K” Kaltschmidt celebrated Gianforte’s bid for another term as the results came in.
“Governor Greg Gianforte is a strong, steady, conservative who will continue to stand up to Joe Biden and the far-left’s agenda, defend our Montana way of life, and help hardworking Montana families keep more of what they earn,” said Kaltschmidt.
Sheila Hogan, the head of the Montana Democratic Party, noted Busse’s victory in a Tuesday evening statement and doubled down on the candidate’s critique of Gianforte, calling the incumbent “wildly unpopular” based on the available primary results.
“The only thing Gianforte is good at is raising your taxes, which is why Ryan Busse is going to show him the door in November,” Hogan said.
As both candidates turn toward the general election, Gianforte carries more cash in his campaign coffers. As of June 3, the day before the primary, Gianforte and Busse had both reported more than $1 million in funds raised — $1,756,824 and $1,223,175, respectively. Gianforte has about $734,000 cash on hand, with Busse holding onto $316,000.
