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June 13, 2024
Tribal communities have for decades been an essential part of the voter base that gives Montana Democrats the ability to make competitive bids for statewide office. A close look at turnout figures for June 4 party primaries in the state’s eight majority-Native districts, however, indicates there may be cracks in that coalition, with voter turnout in those districts’ Republican primaries outstripping the number of Democrats who cast ballots.
This year’s primary election was the first run for political districts drawn after the 2020 census. Historical election data tabulated by Dave’s Redistricting rates those reservation districts as leaning toward Democrats by margins ranging from 10 to 27 percentage points.
Fall turnout is likely to be much improved for Democrats in reservation area districts, said Dan Stusek, a Republican who served on the commission that redrew Montana’s legislative maps following the 2020 census.
“I wouldn’t be too bullish on that,” Stusek said of the low primary turnout. “I anticipate a good effort this fall on the Democratic side in Big Horn County, Blaine County, Roosevelt County, especially those eastern Montana reservation districts.”
In March, the Democratic Party announced a multimillion-dollar Big Sky Victory plan to drive up Native American turnout, a move preceded by 20-year lows in Native voter turnout in key counties in the 2022 general election, when Democrats weren’t driving Native turnout for a statewide candidate.
State Sen. Susan Webber, D-Browning, was a candidate in 2022. This time, Webber said, she believes a message specific to Native American Montanans is needed to drive turnout. The next Legislature will take up the renewal of Medicaid expansion, which is crucial for her constituents, she said, noting a lack of awareness that 1,300 Native children have lost insurance coverage as a result of re-enrollment problems.
“We really need a strong message, and it has to be applicable to reservations, because it always happens that the reservations get left out on everything. People don’t see themselves as part of the bigger picture,” Webber said.
Native turnout is critical to the prospects of Democratic candidates in statewide races, among them U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, the only Montana Democrat who currently holds statewide office, and widely regarded as vulnerable to Republican efforts to take control of the Senate.
Spring voter turnout was extremely low on reservations, said Joe Lamson, a Democrat on the districting commission, who expects turnout will rebound in the fall.
But primary turnout in 2024 looks similar to 2022 on two of the most populated reservations, the Crow Reservation southeast of Billings and the Blackfeet Reservation along the Rocky Mountain Front. There are 14,762 registered voters between the two.
Big Horn County, which includes the Crow Reservation, had the lowest turnout in the state at 23% this year, down 5 percentage points from its 2022 primary turnout of 28%. Glacier County, where the Blackfeet Reservation is located, was 26% — exactly where it was in the 2022 primary preceding a general election in which turnout hit a 20-year low of 38%. There were 431 fewer ballots cast in those counties than in 2022. There were also 422 fewer people registered to vote.
The state’s eight majority-Native districts saw the following turnout June 4:
- House District 15 (portions of the Blackfeet and Flathead reservations) — 718 votes cast in the district’s uncontested Republican primary, and 705 cast in the uncontested Democratic primary.
- House District 16 (portion of the Blackfeet reservation) — 843 votes in a contested Republican primary and 760 votes in an uncontested Democratic primary.
- House District 31 (portions of the Fort Belknap and Fort Peck reservations) — 632 votes cast in an uncontested Republican primary and 516 votes cast in a contested Democratic primary.
- House District 32 (portions of the Fort Belknap, Fort Peck and Rocky Boy’s reservations) — 708 Republican primary votes and 413 Democratic primary votes. Both primaries were uncontested.
- House District 41 (portions of the Crow and Northern Cheyenne reservations) — 403 Republican primary votes and 370 Democratic primary votes. Both primaries were uncontested.
- House District 42 (portions of the Crow Reservation) — 771 Republican primary votes and 455 Democratic primary votes.
- Senate District 16 (portions of the Fort Belknap, Fort Peck and Rocky Boy’s reservations) — 1,303 votes in an uncontested Republican primary, 977 votes in a contested Democratic primary.
- Senate District 21 (portions of the Crow and Northern Cheyenne reservations) — 1,417 votes in an uncontested Republican primary, 906 votes in a contested Democratic primary.
—Tom Lutey
First Tester-Sheehy Debate in the Books
U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy debated for the first time June 9, less than a week after winning their respective primaries..
At Fairmont Hot Springs, before a panel of Montana TV and radio journalists, Tester, the incumbent Democrat, and Sheehy debated the economy, border security and U.S. support for Ukraine’s war against Russian invaders.
Sheehy portrayed America as a country ravaged by problems enabled by Democrats and said he can be part of “new leadership” that can fix things.
Montana’s problem, Tester said, is Sheehy, a wealthy newcomer, and others like him driving up costs.
Spending on the Senate race is expected to hit $200 million as Democrats try to defend a 51-49 majority in the upper chamber of Congress. The push to oust Tester, Montana’s only statewide elected Democrat, is spearheaded by U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Read more: Tester and Sheehy have first debate
—Tom Lutey
Follow-up
We reported last month that Democrats had filed campaign practices complaints against Attorney General Austin Knudsen and his Republican primary opponent, Logan Olson, alleging that Olson was a bad-faith candidate whom Knudsen had recruited in an effort to take advantage of the higher contribution limit allowed for candidates with contested primaries.
Montana Commissioner of Political Practices Chris Gallus this week ruled in favor of Democratic Party Executive Director Sheila Hogan in a portion of that dispute, finding that Olson doesn’t have the five years of active legal practice experience the state Constitution requires of attorney general candidates. Olson, who was admitted to the Montana Bar in September 2020, had argued that legal work he performed while a University of Montana law student should count toward the experience requirement — an argument Gallus rejected.
Gallus did, however, rule that Olson’s claim to be qualified to campaign for attorney general didn’t constitute a violation of the state’s deceptive election practices statute.
In any case, Knudsen handily won the June 4 primary, ending Olson’s candidacy at the ballot box before the ruling came down.
Gallus, who was appointed to his position as the state’s top election cop by Gov. Greg Gianforte last year, hasn’t yet ruled on the Democratic Party’s argument that Knudsen should be penalized for exploiting a loophole in the state’s campaign finance law, but told Capitolized this week that his decision on that allegation is forthcoming.
“It’s like the Paul Harvey show — there will be ‘the rest of the story,’” Gallus said.
—Eric Dietrich & Mara Silvers
By the Numbers
Number of distinct calls for special sessions of the Montana Legislature voted down in mail polls, per results announced by the Montana secretary of state this week.
The special session calls were initially made in early May. Two of the three requested an opportunity to pass new state immigration laws, and the third called for a chance to consider a bill that would switch the state to partisan judicial elections. Each of the session proposals required support from 76 representatives and senators to pass. None received more than 59 votes in support.
All three lead sponsors, Rep. Jane Gillette, Speaker of the House Matt Regier and Sen. Theresa Manzella, made the requests while engaged in contested Republican primary elections. All three subsequently won those primaries against comparatively moderate opponents.
—Eric Dietrich
On Background
This 2021 memorandum submitted by a Montana advisory group to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights discusses the state of voting access for Native Americans living in Montana. Among other factors, the report notes that Native voters often face significant barriers to voting as a result of long travel distances to polls and election administration offices, unreliable mail service and confusion about whether tribal IDs are acceptable forms of identification at polls.
The official list of special sessions held by the Montana Legislature since statehood in 1889, the last of which was called by Gov. Steve Bullock to address a state budget crisis in 2017. Worth noting: Of the 33 special sessions adjourned since 1903, only one, an extension of the 1973 regular session, was called by the Legislature rather than by the governor.
The June 9 Tester-Sheehy debate can be viewed on Montana PBS’ YouTube channel.