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Is there really an exodus from the blue states? Gov. Greg Gianforte seems to think so.
Accepting the position of chair of the Republican Governors Association on Nov. 17, Gianforte suggested that states with Democratic governors were experiencing an exodus while Republican-led states thrived.
“The stakes could not be higher,” Gianforte told his GOP peers. “States with Republican governors are thriving, with our citizens seeing lower costs, safer streets, and a higher quality of life. That stands in stark contrast to the many failing states led by Democrats, places Americans are fleeing.” RGA is a political organization focused on flipping states red in 2026.
A look at migration data for Montana suggests Gianforte might be onto something, though perhaps with a bit of an asterisk in the context of Montana.
A look at the top 10 originating states for Montana newcomers reveals that four have Democratic trifectas, meaning Democrats control the governor’s office and both branches of the state Legislature. Washington, California, Colorado and Oregon were the former homes of 16,312 new Montana residents between 2018 and 2022, according to the most recent U.S. Census data. All told, 47,165 people moved to Montana during the period.
The rest of the list is pretty red: Idaho, Florida, Wyoming, Texas and North Dakota are Republican trifectas that produced a combined 9,108 new Montana residents. Arizona — with its democratic governor and Republican Legislature — contributed 1,637 residents.
Population and miles play a part. Washington, which has 8 million people and is less than 100 miles away, was the last place that 5,106 new Montanans called home. California, the country’s most populous state at 39.6 million, is a notable source of newcomers for many states because even small percentages translate into big numbers, in Montana’s case 5,103. Nonetheless, census data shows California is tops for overall net out-migration. New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts round out the top five.
Some data suggests Montana newcomers tend to vote Republican. As the election data service L2 has calculated, there were three Republican voters moving to Montana for every two Democratic voters moving here from October 2008 to May 2024.
Those numbers are derived by L2 from tracking Montana newcomers from states where voters are required to declare a party when registering. There are notable gaps, caused by states like Montana that don’t require party declaration and states like Washington that only record party affiliation at the county level and only for presidential primaries.
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