A version of this story first appeared in Capitolized, a weekly newsletter featuring expert reporting, analysis and insight from the editors and reporters of Montana Free Press. Want to see Capitolized in your inbox every other Thursday? Sign up here.
Is there really an exodus from the blue states? Gov. Greg Gianforte seems to think so.
Accepting the position of chair of the Republican Governors Association on Nov. 17, Gianforte suggested that states with Democratic governors were experiencing an exodus while Republican-led states thrived.
“The stakes could not be higher,” Gianforte told his GOP peers. “States with Republican governors are thriving, with our citizens seeing lower costs, safer streets, and a higher quality of life. That stands in stark contrast to the many failing states led by Democrats, places Americans are fleeing.” RGA is a political organization focused on flipping states red in 2026.
A look at migration data for Montana suggests Gianforte might be onto something, though perhaps with a bit of an asterisk in the context of Montana.
A look at the top 10 originating states for Montana newcomers reveals that four have Democratic trifectas, meaning Democrats control the governor’s office and both branches of the state Legislature. Washington, California, Colorado and Oregon were the former homes of 16,312 new Montana residents between 2018 and 2022, according to the most recent U.S. Census data. All told, 47,165 people moved to Montana during the period.
The rest of the list is pretty red: Idaho, Florida, Wyoming, Texas and North Dakota are Republican trifectas that produced a combined 9,108 new Montana residents. Arizona — with its democratic governor and Republican Legislature — contributed 1,637 residents.
Population and miles play a part. Washington, which has 8 million people and is less than 100 miles away, was the last place that 5,106 new Montanans called home. California, the country’s most populous state at 39.6 million, is a notable source of newcomers for many states because even small percentages translate into big numbers, in Montana’s case 5,103. Nonetheless, census data shows California is tops for overall net out-migration. New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts round out the top five.
Some data suggests Montana newcomers tend to vote Republican. As the election data service L2 has calculated, there were three Republican voters moving to Montana for every two Democratic voters moving here from October 2008 to May 2024.
Those numbers are derived by L2 from tracking Montana newcomers from states where voters are required to declare a party when registering. There are notable gaps, caused by states like Montana that don’t require party declaration and states like Washington that only record party affiliation at the county level and only for presidential primaries.
LATEST STORIES
How Montana’s federal campaigns are funded
Montana’s federal candidates have arrived at the final stage of the general election largely fueled by individual contributions. National political action committee donations and contributions from congressional leadership committees also play a major role. Here’s a summary of the financial picture for each major candidate who raised at least $90,000 in individual contributions leading up to the Nov. 3 election, including where the bulk of their itemized donors reside.
First Nations celebrate Albertans’ decision to remain a part of Canada
The Blackfoot Confederacy, a coalition of tribes in Montana and Alberta, celebrated Albertans’ decision this week to remain a province within Canada. The “no” vote represents a long-sought victory for First Nations in Alberta, who brought a legal challenge and launched a public information campaign to thwart the secession. Alberta’s independence movement dates back to the Great Depression, though it gained popularity and legitimacy after a handful of events in recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the election of Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Crow Legislature rejects bill to expand enrollment
After nearly two hours of impassioned debate, the Crow Tribe’s Legislature on Wednesday voted down a bill that would dramatically change who counts as a tribal member. The bill, brought by Chairman Frank White Clay, would have revised the tribe’s “blood quantum” standard, effectively making more people eligible for tribal citizenship. Supporters argued that the change was needed to ensure the continued existence of the tribe. Opponents expressed concern over straining federal funding.
