Correction: This story has been updated to clarify that the margin of error for the Western District is greater than the margin of error for the poll overall.
In Montana’s Western District Democratic primary, Ryan Busse leads in favorability and familiarity, with Christi Jacobsen ahead among Republican candidates, according to a new Montana Free Press-Eagleton poll of registered voters.
Busse, a former Democratic candidate for governor, and Jacobsen, Montana’s secretary of state, were both on the ballot in 2024, when Busse won 43% of the votes in the 16 counties that comprise the Western District but only 38.6% of the total vote across the state. Jacobsen won 61.4% of the vote in her race, outperforming President Donald Trump.
In the poll, conducted in late April and early May, 32% of respondents said they viewed Busse favorably and 27% said they viewed Jacobsen favorably. But among Democrats, 75% of respondents said they had a favorable impression of Busse, while 55% said they had a favorable impression of Sam Forstag and 47% said they had a favorable view of Russell Cleveland, two of the other Democratic candidates. Among Republicans, Jacobson had a 41% favorability rating while candidate Aaron Flint had a 40% rating.
Flint, a conservative radio talk show host, leads Republicans in first quarter fundraising and all candidates in PAC contributions. President Trump has also endorsed Flint, which could have some weight at the ballot box. According to the poll, 55% of Republican voters in the state are more likely to vote for a candidate if Trump has endorsed them. The other Republican in the race is Al ‘Doc’ Olszewski, a former state legislator and 2022 primary candidate for U.S. House, who received a 17% favorability rating among all Montanans and a 29% rating among Republicans.
In the Democratic race, Forstag, who leads all candidates in campaign spending, was unidentifiable to 53% of respondents, while Cleveland, who is only 1 of 2 candidates in the field to receive zero PAC contributions, was identifiable to 58% of voters. Matt Rains, the other candidate without PAC contributions, was unidentifiable by 60% of respondents.
The poll was conducted by the Rutgers-New Brunswick Eagleton Institute of Politics. The margin of error overall is +/- 4.3%. The margin of error for Western District voters is +/-6.2%. Voters were not polled about Libertarian Nick Sheedy, or independent Kimberly Persico.
The MTFP–Eagleton poll surveyed 815 Montana registered voters who were invited by text message to complete an online survey. Data was collected from April 29, 2026, to May 7, 2026.
Participants were recruited using a probability-based method, meaning they were randomly drawn from the state’s registered voter file so every voter had a known chance of being invited. The results were weighted during analysis to reflect the demographics of Montana’s registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. You can find more about the methodology here.
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