After half a decade of expanding opportunities to hunt and trap wolves, Montana officials are proposing a lower harvest this fall. The proposal comes after a new population model suggested state wolf numbers are significantly smaller than previously believed.
The new figures released Friday are part of the state’s annual wolf report and estimated Montana’s wolf population to be about 725 wolves — roughly 34 percent fewer than previous estimates which placed wolf numbers at 1,094. The findings, which are yet to be peer-reviewed, also suggest the population is declining.
In response to the revised estimate, Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks proposed lowering this year’s wolf-hunting and -trapping quota from 452 last year to 250 during the upcoming season, which runs from September to March.
“It’s a refinement of our modeling process,” said Quentin Kujala, FWP’s chief of conservation policy.
The new estimate marks a major shift in wolf management. Since the federal government removed wolves from Endangered Species Act protections in 2011, Montana has been in charge of regulating hunting and trapping seasons. In 2021, the state Legislature directed FWP to reduce the statewide wolf population. In the years since, the state has allowed aggressive new hunting and trapping methods like night hunting and neck snaring, and taken steps toward a statewide quota for wolf harvest.
None of the liberalized hunting and trapping methods made a dent in the number of wolves, according to FWP’s state population modeling through last year. Now, with a new model showing a smaller, declining wolf population, the agency says the new population estimate warrants a more conservative approach to the hunt.
Wolves are sneaky and elusive, and notoriously difficult to count. The old model known as iPOM, or “integrated Patch Occupancy Model,” combined field monitoring, hunter observations and nuanced statistical modeling to estimate a statewide wolf population. But science is never static, Kujala says, and the state will always have to adjust how it measures the wolf population as it hones its data and techniques.
The discrepancy between the old and the new model — dubbed iPOM 2.0 — stems from some “under-the-hood” coding, as Kujala puts it, along with a curious discrepancy the agency noticed developing on wolf counts in the field: Not all sightings of the human-wary canid are created equal.
The state divides its wolf observations into good, moderate and poor quality. In recent years, “moderate-quality” observations began depicting noticeably smaller pack sizes than the “good-quality” counts. The previous iteration of iPOM relied only on the highest-quality observations. But in order to reflect the downward trend in on-the-ground pack-size data, the agency incorporated “moderate-quality” counts into iPOM 2.0 as well.
“That’s not the only piece, but that’s one of the bigger pieces that then resulted in a lower predicted pack size,” Kujala said.
Fewer wolves in a pack equates to fewer wolves in the overall population, the model suggests.
“I think FWP’s announcement about the updated population model is incredibly significant,” said Lizzy Pennock, carnivore coexistence attorney at the nonprofit environmental advocacy organization WildEarth Guardians. “And about five years later than I would like.”
Since 2021, Pennock said, advocates and independent scientists have warned the state that iPOM could be overestimating the wolf population. The claim is part of an active lawsuit against the state still working its way through the courts.
Hunters and trappers took a total of 247 wolves last season, the lowest number since 2016. An additional 43 wolves were killed last year by the state, federal government and landowners related to conflicts with livestock. On top of that, another eight were poached, seven died from vehicle and train collisions, and six more perished from other causes, according to the state’s new wolf report. With so much human-caused mortality, Pennock worries the new proposed quota is still too high.
“Despite the quota they’re proposing being numerically less, proportionally it’s not,” Pennock said. “Two-hundred fifty wolves out of 725 is still a third or more of the population. This tells me that FWP is still managing wolves for the absolute bare minimum.”
Chris Morgan, president of the Montana Trappers Association, said the new model brings a lot of questions to the table. “Makes a guy wonder what changed so much to the point that now it’s drastically different,” he said.
If 725 is the most accurate population estimate, Morgan says he supports the new proposed quota. That harvest level would keep wolves above the state’s minimum population level of 450. But from the field, he adds, the state’s new estimate doesn’t line up with his own experience. Where he hunts and traps, the wolf population seems relatively stable. Ultimately, he says more “boots on the ground” FWP employees could make for improved counts overall.
“We get a bad rap all the time, people on my side,” said Morgan, pointing to the perception that wolf hunters look to kill as many wolves as possible. “No, we just want them managed appropriately. And maybe that’s killing wolves and maybe that’s not. But having the data to be able to do that is key.”
Public comment on the state’s proposal runs through August 12. The Fish and Wildlife Commission holds its annual meeting to set the upcoming wolf hunting and trapping regulations on August 19.
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