Chuck Kohlbeck, a rancher in the Gallatin Valley, was cutting hay last week when he heard on the radio that President Donald Trump had announced plans to lower import tariffs for 90 days on 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef. A White House proclamation on Wednesday said countries can import a total of 100,000 metric tons of beef at lower rates each month for three months, starting Sept. 1. Countries are eligible on a first-come, first-served basis.
“I was a little burnt,” Kohlbeck told Montana Free Press on Monday. “Not ‘throwing things’ mad, but I thought, holy crap, what did he just do?”
Trump wrote on Truth Social last week that he is lowering the tariffs in order to “reduce prices for Americans while giving space for our Great American Beef Herd to grow again.”
The theory is that lowering tariffs will reduce import costs, leading to more foreign ground beef in the American retail market. That should reduce the cost of ground beef at the grocery store. Trump did not explain how cheaper imported beef would encourage domestic herd expansion.
In June, the U.S. imported about 250,000 metric tons of beef, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Most of that is lean ground beef that is mixed with domestic beef when it’s processed.
Kohlbeck, who said he believes “Trump is doing the best he can,” studied up on the decision over the weekend and doesn’t expect the president’s move to substantially undercut his bottom line. But Kohlbeck also acknowledged that Wall Street futures traders, who wager on the expected value of commodities, lowered their expectations for the price of cattle as a result of Trump’s announcement. Because the futures market is closely tied to livestock’s cash value, ranchers going to market felt an immediate dip in revenue.
Between Trump’s Friday announcement and Monday, when Kohlbeck sold a cow, the market had already softened.
“We lost $50,” Kohlbeck said.
Industry groups representing agricultural producers, including Montana Farmers Union, Montana Farm Bureau Federation, Montana Stockgrowers Association and R-CALF USA, each put out a press release condemning Trump’s announcement. And each of Montana’s four federal delegates, all Republicans, pushed back against the president’s decision.
A proclamation from the White House on Wednesday laid out details about how the country will implement the policy, but it’s still too early to assess the announcement’s full economic impact. Producers and agricultural economists told MTFP this week that Trump’s shoot-from-the-hip approach — Friday’s announcement marks the second time this year the president has slashed ground beef tariffs via Truth Social — creates unhealthy uncertainty for ranching businesses.
The White House proclamation suggests that lowering tariffs on beef imports will make more ground beef available, and therefore make ground beef more affordable for consumers.
Eric Belasco, an agricultural economist at Montana State University, confirmed this week that Trump’s supply-side economic rationale holds up, though exactly how much the announcement will impact grocery store prices remains unclear.
But Trump’s post also suggested that lower tariffs on ground beef imports will “help our ranchers.” Belasco doesn’t see much evidence to support that claim.
“We’ve already seen futures prices go down because of this,” Belasco said.
Cattle producers, beef processors and Wall Street all participate in the futures market, which has a substantial impact on the actual price of animals.
Futures prices took an earlier downturn in October 2025 when Trump announced he was workshopping a deal to import Argentine beef. In February 2026, when Trump signed an order allowing the import of 80,000 metric tons from Argentina, the market dipped again.
In any case, Argentine beef imports have not increased by 80,000 metric tons since that announcement, according to Belasco. Similarly, he said, authorizing the importation of 300,000 metric tons of lower-tariff ground beef probably won’t equate to 300,000 metric tons of actual additional imports.
Trump’s third claim, that lower tariffs on imports will allow ranchers to grow the domestic herd, drew skepticism from Ted Schroeder, a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University.
A larger cattle herd, Schroeder said, should ultimately lead to more beef production, which should translate to cheaper beef at grocery stores.
But for ranchers to expand the herd, Schroeder says, they need a stable market.
“To retain a heifer is an expensive endeavor. I can sell her out in the market and get a ton of money,” Schroeder said.
Ty Thompson, an auctioneer and cattle sale manager at the Billings Livestock Commission, told MTFP this week that Trump’s policy creates more uncertainty than opportunity for ranchers hoping to grow their herds.
“What it has done is really deteriorated any trust in rebuilding the herd, if this administration wants to import cheap, unlabeled beef,” Thompson said.
Increasing the American herd, Thompson said, means ranchers retain more cattle, rather than selling them to feedlots for fattening and slaughter.
“What you have to have is economic incentive to not sell that heifer,” Thompson said.
Thompson said “governing by tweet and knee-jerk reaction” erodes that incentive.
“You have to have stable government policy to support domestic beef,” Thompson said.
Some ranchers and Montana agricultural associations have used press releases criticizing Trump’s announcement as an opportunity to push for a related policy they believe will benefit both ranchers and consumers. That’s mandatory country of origin labeling, which would require packages of beef to carry a label indicating where meat lived and was slaughtered.
Whether that policy would improve ranchers’ economic bottom line is subject to debate within the cattle industry.
U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke’s office provided a statement last week expressing Zinke’s support for mandatory country of origin labeling in a statement that also critiqued Trump’s decision.
“President Trump is right to focus on lowering grocery prices, but more foreign beef is not the answer. Montana ranchers raise the best beef in the world, and consumers deserve to know when they’re buying it, which is why I support mandatory country-of-origin labeling,” Zinke’s statement said.
Montana’s other three federal delegates also pushed back publicly on Trump’s announcement.
“While I commend President Trump for working to lower the price of goods at the grocery store, importing foreign beef is only going to hurt our ranchers and increase prices over the long-term,” U.S. Sen. Steve Daines wrote on X.
U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy wrote on X that he had advised President Trump against lowering beef tariffs for a year.
A spokesperson for U.S. Rep. Troy Downing told MTFP that “Montana ranchers need stability in the market if we are serious about rebuilding the American cattle herd.”
This story was updated Aug. 27, 2026, to correct the spelling of Chuck Kohlbeck’s name. This story was updated Aug. 28, 2026, to include additional context about U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke’s position on President Donald Trump’s announcement.
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