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Readers who tuned in to our post-election livestream received a comprehensive overview of the U.S. House race in western Montana from political historian Jon Bennion and MTFP reporter Nora Mabie, who unpacked the state’s most competitive midterm race.
Democrat Sam Forstag’s win over Republican Aaron Flint and Libertarian Nick Sheedy flipped a U.S. House district that had been held by Republican incumbent Ryan Zinke since 2023. Zinke chose not to run again, citing health issues. The district was drawn after the 2020 census to accommodate a booming Montana population.
The state had gone 30 years without a second House district. The last Democrat to hold the state’s previous western seat was Pat Williams, who died in 2025. After Montana was reduced to one seat in 1992, western and eastern incumbents Williams and Republican Ron Marlenee battled to represent the new at-large district.
Williams defeated Marlenee and ran again in 1994, surviving the midterm Republican wave led by Georgia Rep. Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America.” That election was Williams’ last. He would later say that representing the entire state was too difficult.
Sam Forstag was born that same year.
Both of Williams’ daughters attended Forstag’s election-night party in Missoula, Mabie said. Neither had expected western Montana to go so long without its own representative, or a Democrat in office.
The Associated Press didn’t call the race for Forstag until Thursday, though both Flint and Forstag acknowledged the Democrat’s win on election night.
Bennion suggested that Montana voters may not have seen the last of Flint. The former host of a prominent statewide conservative talk radio show drew campaign appearances by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and House Speaker Mike Johnson as Republicans attempted to help Flint across the finish line.
—Tom Lutey
By the Numbers
A look beneath the hood of the Western District election results reveals a few notable details.
Flint, who at press time Thursday had received 47% of the vote in the 16-county Western District, outperformed Republican Senate candidate Kurt Alme in raw votes within the district’s boundaries. Alme drew 4,600 fewer votes than Flint in the district.
Independent Senate candidate Seth Bodnar, meanwhile, had a better showing in the west than statewide. The western district Senate vote broke down as follows: Alme, 44.7%; Bodnar, 41.2%; Democrat Alani Bankhead, 12.5%; and Libertarian Kyle Austin, 1.53%.
Last, but not (L)East
The gap in raw votes between Republican Rep. Troy Downing and Alme in the 41-county Eastern District [each U.S. House District has part of Pondera County] was wider than the gap between Flint and Alme.
Downing won reelection easily with 58.11% of the vote, defeating his closest rival, Democrat Brian Miller, who received 32.25%. In raw votes, Downing had roughly 11,000 more eastern district votes than Alme, who received 52.63% of the Senate vote in the east.
Bankhead did slightly worse in eastern Montana, where she received 11.7% of the vote.
Bodnar’s vote share closely tracked Miller’s in the east, where the independent received 33.36% of the vote.
—Tom Lutey
Further Down Ballot
A handful of close state legislative races were breaking in favor of Democrats on Thursday, particularly in Great Falls, where Margaret Mitchell was leading Republican Jessica Dyrdahl by 1,000 votes in Senate District 10. The district is currently held by Jeremy Trebas, who didn’t seek reelection.
Senate District 10 is one of 25 Senate seats on the ballot this year for the first time since being redrawn after the 2020 census. House District 20, which makes up half of Senate District 10 and is represented by Republican Melissa Nikolakakos, appeared to be flipping to Democrat Steve Keller, who was leading Nikolakakos by 40 votes as of press time Thursday.
Republicans in Flathead County appeared poised to lose a Columbia Falls House seat held by Lyn Bennett. Bennett lost the Republican primary to Shaun Pandina in June. Democrat Paula Koch was leading Pandina 55% to 45% as of press time Thursday.
Elsewhere, Bozeman’s Scott Rosenzweig flipped Senate District 29, a seat most recently held by Republican Jon Esp of Big Timber. Term limits prevented Esp from running again, but the man known as the “dean of the Senate” had also been drawn out of the district. Rosenzweig defeated Republican Jason Gunderson of Livingston. Rosenzweig currently represents House District 57, a seat he flipped in 2024.
Bozeman Democrat Becky Edwards won House District 57, which stretches from north Bozeman to Cooke City, with an elevation difference of roughly 3,000 feet between the two communities. Edwards currently serves in House District 61.
Billings Republican Curtis Schomer was leading Democrat Tucker Colvin by 32 votes in House District 48 at press time.
—Tom Lutey
Ballots are in, votes are counted and it’s time to make sense of this week’s election. In case you missed it, MTFP reporters and Big Sky Politics author Jon Bennion recapped Tuesday’s results, analyzing key races and their impacts toward the future of Montana. You can catch up on the post-election recap here or dive deeper into the history of Montana’s elections with a signed copy of Big Sky Politics.
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