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Widespread rainfall across Montana Wednesday and Thursday could mean an early end for the 2024 fire season. Though blazes continue to burn throughout the state, the forecast includes high humidity and mild winds, dampening fire spread and limiting the potential for new fire starts.
Though she said she was cautious to draw definitive conclusions about weather patterns, Jen Kitsmiller, a National Weather Service meteorologist based in Missoula, identified the meteorological conditions as likely signs that western Montana’s fire season is turning toward a close.
“It’s not totally abnormal to have something like this bring an end to fire season,” Kitsmiller said.
And while eastern Montana still faces thunderstorms with the potential to start new fires, cooler temperatures and increased precipitation will also reduce wildfire risk on the plains.
Among the fires still active in eastern Montana is the Short Draw Fire, a 30,500-acre blaze in Montana’s southeastern corner, which is still facing wildfire-prone weather. Originating in Campbell County, Wyoming, the young blaze, which was reported Wednesday, bears an early resemblance to the Remington Fire, a now-190,000 acre blaze that also began in Wyoming before spreading northward into Montana. The Remington Fire now spans Powder River, Big Horn and Rosebud counties. It is considered almost entirely contained.
The Remington Fire, one of the largest wildfires to burn in Montana since 2017, accounts for roughly half of the 354,000 acres burned across the state during the summer.
In terms of acres burned, the 2024 fire season currently ranks as the fourth-worst since 2015, according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center and Montana Department of Natural Resources. In contrast, roughly 750,000 acres, more than twice the number of acres consumed this season, burned in 2021. Roughly 1.3 million acres burned in 2017, the worst fire season in the recent past.
—Zeke Lloyd, Fire Reporting Intern
Hot Potato 🥔
A discussion last week about one of the key decisions facing next year’s Montana Legislature — whether to renew the state’s expanded Medicaid program — turned to a seemingly unrelated open primaries initiative on this year’s ballot, as two lawmakers on a panel at MTFP’s Free Press Fest suggested that reworking primary elections will have a significant impact on how some of their colleagues weigh the political cost of controversial votes.
During the Sept. 6 panel, state Rep. SJ Howell, D-Missoula, brought up CI-126 as a potential game-changer for Medicaid expansion votes. The constitutional initiative, which would replace party primaries with a nonpartisan primary that advances the top four candidates to November general elections, will be on this year’s ballot.
“Open primaries would really shift some of the considerations that legislators are making when they think about the votes that they’re taking and how those votes land in their home districts,” Howell said, “and who in their districts, which constituents, will participate in primary elections a year after they hit that button.”
Medicaid expansion has historically been opposed by hard-right Republicans, who have argued it unnecessarily expands the scope of government. The program was last renewed in 2019 by a coalition of Democrats and centrist Republicans, with some of the Republicans subsequently subjected to successful primary challenges from the party’s right flank.
Another legislator on the panel, Senate Majority Leader Steve Fitzpatrick, R-Great Falls, agreed that the initiative could change lawmakers’ calculations but theorized that the change would actually make some embattled lawmakers more cautious. He called CI-126 a “stick of plutonium” that could intensify a session that is likely to see debate in politicized areas like property tax reform in addition to Medicaid.
Fitzpatrick predicted a tight Senate vote on Medicaid expansion that, if it passes, would do so with 26 or 27 senators in favor. He said legislators might not be as likely to support controversial legislation like Medicaid renewal if CI-126 brings inter-party general election challenges.
“But now you basically have to worry about that 10% to 15% of people in your general election that if they decide not to vote for you if you’re in a three-way or a four-way race, they could probably take you out,” he said. “So I actually think CI-126 makes it harder to pass Medicaid expansion.”
In an email statement, a spokesperson for Montanans for Election Reform, CI-126’s backer group, argued that, currently, a small number of primary voters can secure the general election in districts that are safe seats for one party. In the group’s view, CI-126 makes the general election more consequential, which it believes will minimize pressure to cater to the less broadly representative primary electorate as lawmakers make their political calculations.
“This makes leaders more willing and able to take hard votes that reflect the will of the majority of their constituents instead of the fringes of their party,” said spokesperson Caitie Butler. “Open primaries encourage consensus-building, protecting leaders who are willing to work across the aisle to pass important legislation instead of being afraid of being ‘primaried’ by more extreme members of their party for taking the votes a majority of their constituents support.”
SEE MORE: The full Medicaid panel discussion.
—Matt Hudson, Reporter
Verbatim 💬
“We typically do not restrict [Requests for Proposals] to Montana-based providers only. We’re interested in all responses. We’re interested in the highest quality responses, and those that indicate there will be the greatest return on investment on behalf of Montanans and taxpayers.”
—Charlie Brereton, director of the Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services, defending the state’s decision to award a contract for childcare provider support services to a New York-based company, Shine Early Learning.
Brereton’s comments came in response to questions on Wednesday from lawmakers on the Children, Families, Health and Human Services Interim Committee. Rep. Jennifer Carlson, R-Manhattan, was one of the legislators who expressed concern about the department’s decision, in light of reports that local non-profit providers may have to shutter without the revenue from state contracts.
Citing the state’s competitive procurement process, Brereton said the recommendation to award one of those major contracts for statewide services to Shine was made to the health department by an independent scoring committee.
READ MORE: Changes to state contracts with childcare service providers provoke concern, and cuts.
—Mara Silvers, Reporter
Committee Watch 👥
Legislative auditors presented an audit study this week exploring the operations of Montana’s Judicial Standards Commission, the body that reviews complaints against Montana judges.
The Judicial Standards Commission can recommend discipline and removal of judges and has been a point of concern in recent years for Republicans worried about alleged judicial bias.
Auditors who work for the Legislature found that the five-member commission follows practices “similar to all other judicial conduct commissions across the nation,” but made suggestions for improving the commission’s operations.
Specifically, members of the commission receive no formal training and its rules for investigation and review lack clarity, auditors said. Additionally, the options for informal corrective actions are limited.
The audit also expressed concern about the commission’s use of retired judges as investigators when relationships with former colleagues being investigated could be a problem.
The public has limited access to information about complaints, as do complainants.
There are 175 judges in Montana. Auditors considered 656 complaints, of which 97% focused on impartiality and bias. Over the 11-years studied, the commission dismissed 97% of complaints, which auditors said is the national average.
—Tom Lutey, Reporter
By the Numbers 🔢
The cost NorthWestern Energy said it would have to pay for new emissions-control equipment at the Colstrip power plant to comply with a rule the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency adopted earlier this year to reduce airborne heavy metals associated with power plant operations.
John Hines, NorthWestern’s Montana director of governmental affairs, presented that figure during a Tuesday morning meeting with the Montana Legislature’s interim energy committee while attempting to make an economic case for the utility’s plan to acquire an expanded share of Colstrip, Montana’s largest power plant.
Maintenance and operations costs for the nearly 40-year-old coal-fired power plant are shared between the plant’s six co-owners, five of which are utility companies that typically pass those costs onto their customers. It’s unclear if the $191 million figure for a new emissions-filtering baghouse Hines cited pertains to the current ownership structure or the revised ownership structure that goes into effect on Jan 1, 2026, when NorthWestern intends to acquire portions of the plant currently held by Avista and Puget Sound Energy, Washington-based utilities that are pulling out of the plant to comply with climate change-oriented laws in their state.
Once executed, the ownership transfers will give NorthWestern a 55% ownership stake in the plant, meaning it will have to pick up a larger share of the plant’s maintenance and upgrade costs. Further complicating the calculation, two Oregon-based utilities with ownership stakes are barred from passing spendy plant upgrades onto their customers if those upgrades are intended to extend the plant’s life beyond 2025.
Plant operator Talen put the cost of a new baghouse at upwards of $600 million when it commented on the EPA’s (then proposed) rule in 2023.
Asked in an email for more detail regarding NorthWestern’s share of the upgrade, spokesperson Jo Dee Black demurred, saying only that the timing of the investment will determine how much NorthWestern will be expected to pay. The company will continue to move forward with the upgrade “as long as the Colstrip plant is economical for our Montana customers,” she wrote, adding that any upgrades will be subject to an approval process that’s outlined in the owners’ long-standing operating agreement.
Hines noted in his Tuesday remarks that Colstrip’s owners are up against a ticking clock to work out whether they’ll invest in a baghouse. The owners have to start making moves toward the investment within one-and-a-half years to comply with the EPA’s new emissions rule, Hines told lawmakers.
Meanwhile, the state of Montana, NorthWestern and Westmoreland, the owner of the mine that supplies the Colstrip plant with coal, have launched on ongoing challenge to the legality of the EPA’s emissions standards.
—Amanda Eggert, Reporter
The Gist 📌
Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen filed a petition with the U.S. Supreme Court this month in an effort to reinstate two 2021 laws ending same-day voter registration and prohibiting paid ballot collection in Montana. The court battle over these laws has been ongoing since shortly after they first passed and has involved a divisive legal theory the nation’s highest court weighed in on last year. Jacobsen’s latest filing was no exception.
MTFP took a deep look at that theory — known as the independent state legislatures theory — last year with constitutional scholar and University of Montana law professor Craig Cowie, including its role in Montana’s legal fight over election policy. This month, we turned to Cowie once again for a bit more insight on how Jacobsen’s petition carries the issue forward.
As Cowie pointed out, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a pretty flat rejection of the independent state legislatures theory, which posits that legislature’s have broad authority under the U.S. Constitution to set policy governing federal elections without judicial interference. The 2023 ruling came in a case called Moore v. Harper, where six of nine justices refuted the notion. In essence, Cowie said, that decision determined state courts can consider whether such policies violate their state’s constitution provided they don’t “become the legislature” and start “weighing in on what’s the best policy.”
So where does Jacobsen’s petition come in? As Cowie noted, the Supreme Court in Moore v. Harper “very expressly refused to lay out a rule for when a state court would have exceeded that limit,” leaving the bounds of what state courts can and can’t do in reviewing disputed election legislation something of an open legal question. However, in his concurring opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh did suggest a legal test for measuring when a state court has overstepped. And it’s that suggestion, Cowie said, which Jacobsen’s legal team has picked up as it looks to get the national court to weigh in on Montana’s laws.
“The petition goes one step further and says that, if you adopt Justice Kavanaugh’s rule on when a court will have gone beyond its power, that’s not met here,” Cowie continued. “They claim the Montana Supreme Court sort of exceeded the bounds of judicial review in basically striking these two provisions.”
Whether enough justices agree that Montana’s situation presents an opportunity to answer their unanswered question remains to be seen. Accepting a case requires a vote of at least four justices, and by Cowie’s count, the Supreme Court granted about 60 of the roughly 4,200 petitions submitted in the last term. However, Cowie added, it’s not hard to see a situation where Kavanaugh and the three dissenting justices in Moore v. Harper decide the case is ripe. With the term still young, the coming months will tell.
—Alex Sakariassen, Reporter
Highlights ☀️
In other news this week —
The owner of the Sibanye Stillwater palladium mine in south-central Montana said Thursday it plans to lay off about 700 workers as it scales back production to account for low metal prices. Eric Dietrich reports that, per the state labor department, that layoff figure represents 16% of Montana’s remaining mining jobs.
On Our Radar 
Alex — The nonprofit news outlet Chalkbeat made an interesting observation this week that, as a dedicated education beat reporter, I also noticed myself: Tuesday night’s presidential debate came and went with little to no mention of the issues facing America’s schools.
Brad — I dragged my sorry ass out of the house late (7:30 p.m.) on Thursday to see The State Champions debut their record, “Independent Record,” at the Myrna Loy mostly because I just like lead champ Aaron Parrett, who helped introduce me to Helena when I moved here five years ago. But damn. Singer/picker Parrett, bassist-songwriter-harmonicist John Dendy and guitarist Jon Flynn (plus guest player-producer Matt Strachan) played a set of load-bearing songs about spent youth, love and death with earnest soul and utter lack of pretense, peppered with satisfying imperfections. It reminded me why I used to like live music.
JoVonne — Taylor Swift took home the majority of the wins, including Artist of the Year, at the 2024 MTV Music Video Awards earlier this week. However, the highlight for me was watching Chappell Roan, who I started listening to this summer, win Best New Artist.
Jacob — A National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine report out this week on the future of NASA highlighted potential unsustainability for one of the American public’s favorite federal agencies. Contributing factors include NASA’s dependence on commercial entities that are siphoning off talented graduates with higher wages and less bureaucracy, funding uncertainty and aging infrastructure – much of it dating back to the Apollo era.
Zeke — Gray skies blanketed much of Montana this week as summer began making way for autumn. Sumbuck’s soft, folky album, Oh Sweet Cafe Racer, doesn’t offer resentment about the coming of nippier months, but instead weaves the warmth of blue-skied, July afternoons together with the cold of overcast, September mornings.
Mara — It’s the season for zucchini bread recipes. I’m partial to this tried-and-true option from Sally’s Baking Addiction, though with the addition of finely chopped pistachios. What’s your go-to?
Eric — It’s been a week. This YouTuber strapped a GoPro to a model train so his cats could play Godzilla. Watching it repeatedly made me feel better.
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