A secession of one of Montana’s northern neighbor provinces appears unlikely in the face of political, legal obstacles

An unlikely Alberta secession by Montana’s neighbors to the north just got a little more unlikely. 

Months after Alberta Premier Danielle Smith warned of an “unprecedented national unity crisis” if her demands for changes to federal policies went ignored, tensions between Smith and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney thawed during a Sept. 10 meeting in Edmonton.

“I would encourage Albertans to not lose faith in the process,” Smith said during a Sept. 11 press conference. “Let’s work together on it because we’re all stronger together.”

Despite earlier hints at support for breaking the province she leads away from the rest of Canada, Smith never endorsed the Alberta Prosperity Project, a coalition claiming to have more than 200,000 members ready to support an independence referendum — though she did promote legislation lowering the signature threshold for referendums and extending the signature collection window. 

Montana has strong ties, economic and otherwise, with Alberta, facilitated by a handful of border crossings along a roughly 180-mile border. Montana is the only U.S. state that has a boundary with Alberta, and it also shares resources like the St. Mary and Milk rivers, as well as Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park and a high-voltage transmission line. Tourism from Alberta has been important to Montana, and a 2018 document produced by the Alberta government notes that bilateral trade between Montana and Alberta totalled $4.34 billion.

An Albertan transition from province to nation might not have a major economic impact on Montana, according to University of Calgary professor Aidan Hollis. 

“The transportation links North-South across the Alberta-US border are not great and the distance to really large markets south of the border is large,” Hollis wrote in a late-August email to Montana Free Press. 

Secession advocates believe independence would enable Alberta’s 4.3 million barrels-per-day of crude oil — about 84% of the barrels Canada produces daily — to flow more directly south to meet American demand. Not only would free trade require diplomacy, Montana isn’t currently equipped to process or consume oil on that scale, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Though a series of pipelines link Montana to Alberta’s natural gas, getting oil into Montana would require extensive investment in infrastructure. 

“Almost all Alberta exports to the U.S. are oil and gas, but those overwhelmingly flow through other provinces before reaching the U.S.,” Hollis wrote via email. “For oil, only the Express pipeline, capacity about 310,000 barrels per day, goes directly from Alberta into the US.”

Michael Nayebi-Oskoui, director of analysis at the consulting firm Zeihan on Geopolitics, identified a range of obstacles in the way of Alberta’s sovereignty. 

“You see a lot of agitation with groups who want to secede over the last 20 or 30 years since globalization has kind of taken off, but when they’re forced to toe up to the line, it almost always fails,” Nayebi-Oskoui said in an interview with MTFP. 

Nayebi-Oskoui called nascent nationhood a “pretty sobering reality.”

“You now have to have your own military. You have to have your own federal system. You have to have your election. You have to have your own budget,” Nayebi-Oskoui said.

Potential diplomatic and commerce challenges could also arise from Alberta’s landlocked nature — about 93% of an independent state’s border would touch Canada. According to Nayebi-Oskoui, it’s easier to create a country with a neighbor ready to absorb you.

“And those don’t usually happen between good neighbors, and even with the current kerfuffle, [the U.S. and Canada are] still in a broad ‘good neighbors’ relationship,” Nayebi-Oskoui said.

Though Premier Smith has dropped clues about an “unprecedented national unity crisis,” she has also pushed back against Republican President Donald Trump’s social media posts indicating he’d like to grant Canada statehood. 

“I’m so frustrated that what sounded like it started off as a joke continues to be talked about six months later,” Smith said on a May episode of the podcast “Your Province, Your Premier.” 

Smith, the highest-ranking member of Alberta’s United Conservative Party, has also been in conflict with Canada’s federal government over nine energy and environmental policies, including emissions caps and single-use plastic. 

But APP members feel a stronger ire for Ottawa. 

One of the project’s founders, Dennis Modry, believes the federal government has been taking advantage of Alberta since the province joined Canada 120 years ago.

“The people in the west — particularly Alberta, Saskatchewan, central and northern British Columbia, and to an extent Manitoba — have been subjugated and dominated and exploited for their wealth,” Modry said in an interview with MTFP.

Modry helped launch APP in February 2022. In early 2025, the coalition boasted about 45,000 members.

“The kerosene that was poured on the flames of independence occurred subsequent to the most recent federal election,” Modry said, referencing Liberal Party Prime Minister Mark Carney’s April victory. “And Albertans have just said, ‘no, we’re not going to put up with another four years of liberal governance.’”

Modry said APP’s numbers rose to more than 200,000 after the April election.

Canadian polling firms have explored the popularity of secession, though it’s too soon to survey on how Carney’s term — and his negotiations with Smith — have impacted the movement’s popularity. 

Between 2021 and 2025, a survey commissioned by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation shows a relatively steady number — about 1 in 3 — of respondents favor separation. Relative to four years ago, the number of secession proponents who report feeling adamant about separation increased by about 1 in 5. 

In the same window, the number of respondents who feel more attached to Canada than the province increased to about 1 in 3 Albertans. Another 1 in 3 said they feel equally attached to the province and the country.

But it might not get to a vote. Getting the referendum on a 2026 ballot has proved legally challenging. 

After APP filed a constitutional referendum proposal application with Elections Alberta in early July, Alberta’s Chief Electoral Officer Gordon McClure referred it to the judiciary to rule on the measure’s constitutionality. Justice Colin Feasby in mid-August denied APP’s attempt to summarily dismiss the case considering a referendum’s constitutionality. The separatists must submit written arguments ahead of a November court date.

Unfazed by the obstacles to independence, Dennis Modry said that independence excites him in part because it would mean a closer relationship with Montana.

“We want to help Montana too, and we can do it.”