Kurt Alme has an 8-point lead over Seth Bodnar in Montana’s four-candidate U.S. Senate race with Alani Bankhead and Kyle Austin trailing the leader by wide margins, according to a Montana Free Press-Rutgers Eagleton poll.
The poll of 845 registered voters was conducted Aug. 27 to Sept. 7. When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 38% of respondents said they’d vote for Alme, while 30% said they’d vote for Bodnar.
Meanwhile, just 16% of respondents said they’d vote for Democrat Bankhead, while 5% said they’d vote for Libertarian Austin.
Polling was done by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University. The margin of error was 4.2%.
Another 6% of registered voters selected “someone else” as their candidate, while another 5% said they wouldn’t vote. There is a write-in candidate, Jami Woodman, the former campaign manager for Reilly Neill, the second-place finisher in the Democratic primary. Woodman wasn’t included in the poll.
Most Democrats, 53%, said they would vote for Bodnar over Bankhead, at 41%, more evidence of the mid-summer tug-of-war, in which several high-profile Democrats pressured Bankhead to drop out early enough not to appear on the general election ballot. Both former U.S. Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester, as well as former Montana Democratic Party chair Nancy Keenan, insist the Democratic nominee, who won a crowded, five-way Democratic primary with 48,772 votes, has no chance of winning.
Independent voters, Montana’s largest voting bloc at 44%, according to the poll, also broke for Bodnar 38%, with 25% favoring Alme and 18% for Bankhead. Because the number of Montanans identifying as Democrats hovers around 20%, the party’s statewide candidates rely more on independent support than Republican candidates do.
Voters who chose Republican U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy in 2024 weren’t a complete lock for Alme, who picked up 78% of Sheehy’s voters, while 7% preferred Bodnar and 5% Austin. Among Bodnar supporters, 74% said they voted for Tester in the 2024 Senate race between him and Sheehy. More than three-fourths, 78%, of Bankhead’s supporters indicated they voted for Tester in 2024.
A majority of respondents, 68%, who chose Donald Trump for president in 2024, said they intend to vote for Alme, while 10% said they would vote for Bodnar.
Older voters seemed to be Alme’s strong suit, with 51% of voters aged 65 and older indicating they would vote for the Republican, while voters aged 18 to 44 gave Alme 27%.
Older voters are Montana’s most reliable, with 85% indicating that they were almost certain to vote and 7% very likely to do so.
Bodnar polled evenly across all age groups, with 27% of voters aged 18 to 34 supporting the independent and more than 30% of voters aged 35 to 65-plus supporting him. Seniors aged 65 and older gave Bodnar a 35% share.
Bankhead’s strongest age demographic is 18 to 34, with a 25% share. She was at 19% among voters aged 35 to 49 and 10% among voters aged 65 and older.
Both male and female voters favored Alme with 42% of men and 34% of women supporting the Republican. Bodnar’s support was 29% among men and 31% among women. Bankhead placed third among both men and women, at 10% and 23%, respectively.
Libertarian Kyle Austin’s support was in single digits among voters sorted by age and gender.
This Montana Insights Poll surveyed registered voters in Montana who were invited by text message to complete an online survey. Data was collected from August 27, 2026, to September 7, 2026. Participants were recruited using a probability-based method, meaning they were randomly drawn from the state’s registered voter file, so every voter had a known chance of being invited. The results were weighted during analysis to reflect the demographics of Montana’s registered voters. The survey’s overall margin of error is +/- 4.2%. The full methodology is available to review here. Detailed poll results from the latest round of polling conducted in September 2026 can be downloaded as a spreadsheet here.
This story was updated on Sept. 14, 2026, to correct the percentage of supporters for Seth Bodnar and Alani Bankhead who reported voting for Jon Tester in his Senate race against Tim Sheehy in 2024. This version also removes references that compared the latest poll results with those from this spring and includes some minor editing for clarity.
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