Aaron Flint and Sam Forstag appear to be in a dead heat for Montana’s Western District House race, according to a Montana Free Press-Rutgers Eagleton poll.
In what’s expected to be Montana’s most competitive federal race, Flint, a Republican, drew a 42% polling share when 375 registered voters were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. Forstag, a Democrat, drew a 41% polling share. Nick Sheedy, a Libertarian, drew 5%.
The poll was taken between Aug. 27 and Sept. 7. The margin of error is 6%. Of those polled, 9% indicated they preferred none of the candidates or would vote for someone else, while 2% said they wouldn’t vote. Polling was done by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University. Voting in Montana’s general election runs from Oct. 6 to Nov. 3.
The Western District comprises 16 Montana counties, including Missoula and Gallatin, which rank first and second for Democratic voters in the state, as well as Flathead County, which has the second-most Republican voters.
Incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke, a Republican, has locked down the district since it first appeared on the ballot in 2022, after it was drawn to accommodate population growth following the 2020 Census. In March, Zinke opted not to run again, citing health problems.
Should the race finish as tightly as polling suggests, it would be Montana’s closest U.S. House race since 1992.
Half of the women in the poll said they were voting for Forstag, with 39% voting for Flint, 2% for Sheedy and 7% either preferring someone else or none of the above. Of the men polled, 45% chose Flint, 32% selected Forstag, 8% chose Sheedy, and 12% preferred someone else or none of the above. The likelihood of voters choosing Flint increases with age. Just 34% of those polled between the ages of 18 and 44 favored Flint; those numbers steadily increased to 51% among voters 65 and older. Both 2% of men and women said they wouldn’t be voting in the race.
Forstag’s strongest age group was 18 to 44; roughly 49% said they would vote for Forstag. The Democrat’s support was lowest among voters 65-plus at 36%. Support for Libertarian Sheedy was 5% across all age groups.
Voters who said they knew Flint were fairly evenly divided on whether they liked the military veteran and radio talk show host. Flint’s favorable rating was 31%, his unfavorable rating was 32%, and 19% of respondents offered no opinion.
Forstag drew the highest favorability mark at 41%, with 19% viewing the Democrat unfavorably.
This Montana Insights Poll surveyed registered voters in Montana who were invited by text message to complete an online survey. Data was collected from August 27, 2026, to September 7, 2026. Participants were recruited using a probability-based method, meaning they were randomly drawn from the state’s registered voter file, so every voter had a known chance of being invited. The results were weighted during analysis to reflect the demographics of Montana’s registered voters. The margin of error for Western District voters is 6.0%. The full methodology is available to review here. Detailed poll results from the latest round of polling conducted in September 2026 can be downloaded as a spreadsheet here.
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