Montana Legislature remains in Republican hands despite nationwide blue wave

The makeup of state lawmakers around the country looks much bluer than it did just a few days ago. In Montana, though, both chambers remain Republican. 

A blue wave swept the country during Tuesday’s midterms. But in the Montana Legislature, redistricting maps from 2023 effectively walled off Republican-held districts and kept Democratic momentum modest. 

Democrats picked up two seats in the state Senate and at least one in the House of Representatives, according to The Associated Press. Two House races, one in Billings and another in Great Falls, are still too close to call. But even if Democrats lose both, their minority will grow to 20 in the Senate and 43 in the House, up from 18 and 42, respectively, during the 2025 session. 

Democrats heralded the legislative pickups as evidence that the party’s popularity is on the rise — the 2027 session will feature the most Democratic lawmakers since 2009. Republican insiders, however, told Montana Free Press that the Democratic pickups could have been even more pronounced if not for legislative redistricting in 2023, which potentially saved Republican majorities in both chambers. 

Even the modest gains are enough for state Democrats to mark an upward trendline from the party’s recent low point in the 2022 elections, when Democrats became the first in the history of the state’s modern Constitution to suffer a bicameral superminority.

Democrats favored a redistricted map in 2023 that, by reducing the number of competitive districts, made it especially difficult for the GOP to keep their supermajority. The plan helped Democrats claw back seats in 2024 by making some districts safer for Democrats. The party picked up 10 seats in the House and two in the Senate, returning to nonsuperminority status.

But during the 2026 blue wave, where voters across the country opted for Democrats over Republicans even in traditionally conservative states, Montana Democrats’ defensive maps from 2023 came back to bite them. While other state Democratic parties have been winning big in Legislatures around the country, gains here remained metered. 

“By creating relatively few competitive districts, the map insulated Republicans from significant losses even in a strong Democratic year,” Sen. Greg Hertz, R-Polson, who serves as the chair of the Montana Republican Legislative Campaign Committee, texted MTFP in response to questions Wednesday. 

Ciara Maxwell, director of the Montana Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, defended the 2023 redistricting maps in a Wednesday interview with MTFP, describing them as  “very fair.” Maxwell posited that the gains can be attributed to hardworking, community-focused candidates running on the Democratic ticket.   

“Democrats have shown that we are increasingly competitive every cycle,” Maxwell said. 

One example of Democrats’ ground-gaining strategy is around Great Falls, where the party has been making steady pickups since 2022, the year it lost every legislative race in Cascade County. 

With 97% of the votes counted for House District 20, which includes an eastern portion of downtown Great Falls, Democrat Steve Keller is ahead of incumbent Melissa Nikolakakos, R-Great Falls, even if by a slim 46 votes. And in Senate District 10, which includes downtown Great Falls, Democrat Margaret Mitchell defeated Republican Jessica Dyrdahl. The seat was left open after Jeremy Trebas, R-Great Falls, opted to run for the Public Service Commission. 

Mitchell told MTFP on Thursday morning that she was heartened to see “very, very close” races in Cascade County.

“Even in some of the areas that were very heavily red, we made inroads,” Mitchell said. 

Republicans won two House races around Great Falls by fewer than 200 votes. In a Senate race, Republican Rep. George Nikolakakos, R-Great Falls, defeated Democrat Mindy Leach by only four percentage points. The Montana Republican Party offered their own narrative in a Thursday statement, writing that, despite Democrats’ best efforts in Cascade County, “Republicans still delivered.” 

Democrats also picked up seats in northwest and central Montana. That includes House District 4, which comprises downtown Columbia Falls and a southeastern chunk of Whitefish. Democrat Paula Koch beat Republican Shaun Pandina, who defeated incumbent Republican Rep. Lyn Bennett, R-Columbia Falls, in the June primary. And in Senate District 29, encompassing Livingston, Clyde Park and part of Bozeman, Rep. Scott Rosenzweig, D-Bozeman, bested Republican Jason Gunderson. The seat was left open by Sen. John Esp, R-Big Timber, who decided to retire. 

In addition to the two flipped seats in the Senate — SD 10 in Great Falls and SD 29 in Livingston — Democrats held on to a closely contested seat in Senate District 42, which includes East Helena, Canyon Ferry and York. The district wasn’t on the ballot in 2024, so Tuesday marked its first election with the new map. When AP called the race at 9:19 a.m. Thursday, incumbent Sen. Mary Ann Dunwell, D-Helena, led Republican Stephen LaPraim by only 130 votes.

In the House, two seats have yet to be called. That includes the showdown between Keller and Melissa Nikolakakos in Great Falls, as well a race in Billings, where the candidates are separated by only 32 votes.

Whether Democrats pick up three legislative seats or five, Kyle Schmauch, chief of staff and communications director for the Republican Senate majority, told MTFP in a Wednesday interview that it wouldn’t have a material impact on the Legislature. 

“The overall makeup of the Legislature — among partisanship and among legislative factions — is functionally unchanged from what it was before the election,” Schmauch said. 

House Minority Leader Rep. Katie Sullivan, D-Missoula, who was termed out of the House and chose not to run for the Senate, took a different tack in a Wednesday interview with MTFP. 

“Picking up a couple seats in the Montana Legislature is not nothing,” Sullivan said. “I think it’s very good.”

Both Republicans and Democrats will meet in Helena during the latter half of next week for orientation, which includes electing party leadership.