This story is excerpted from the MT Lowdown, a weekly newsletter digest containing original reporting and analysis published every Friday.
After years of new arrivals swelling Montana’s population and straining its housing supply, new data released Dec. 19 by the U.S. Census Bureau indicates that the volume of net migration into the state has declined.
As of July 1, 2023, the federal demographics agency estimates Montana had 1,132,800 residents. That’s about 9,900 more than a year prior, or a 0.9% increase.
While that’s a lot of new Montanans — roughly as many people as the populations of Belgrade, Miles City or Whitefish — it’s a markedly more modest increase than the state has seen in prior years. Between mid-2021 and mid-2022, for example, the agency estimates Montana grew almost twice that fast, adding about 19,200 residents.
The agency produces its annual population estimates by extrapolating from the population counts reported following the 2020 census, adding births, subtracting deaths, and using federal records such as IRS tax returns to estimate how residents have moved between places. Equivalent county-level population statistics for 2023, which will provide an updated look at regional growth in different parts of Montana, aren’t scheduled to be available until March.
Since the 2020 census, which counted the state’s population as of April 1, 2020, the agency estimates that Montana’s population has grown by about 48,600 residents — slightly less than the current population of Bozeman proper.
Nearly all of that growth is attributable to in-migration. Since the 2020 census, the agency estimates 51,600 more people have moved into Montana than have relocated elsewhere. Over the same time period, the state has seen roughly 3,000 more deaths than births.
Other data published by the Census Bureau estimates that, as of July 2023, Montana had about 527,800 housing units — one potential home for every 2.1 residents. Since the 2020 census, however, the agency’s figures indicate Montana’s housing supply has grown by a comparatively slim 13,000 units, adding only one home for every 3.7 residents of population growth.
This story is published by Montana Free Press as part of the Long Streets Project, which explores Montana’s economy with in-depth reporting. This work is supported in part by a grant from the Greater Montana Foundation, which encourages communication on issues, trends, and values of importance to Montanans. Discuss MTFP’s Long Streets work with Lead Reporter Eric Dietrich at [email protected].
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