Rosendale makes U.S. Senate bid official

Eastern Montana Congressman Matt Rosendale formally launched his campaign for U.S. Senate on Friday, pledging to appeal to conservative voters who want to flip the seat currently held by incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester to Republican hands.

Rosendale, an iconoclastic Republican hardliner who voted against certifying 2020 presidential election results and helped oust Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year, used Friday’s appearance to launch another round of broadsides against his main primary election competitor, Tim Sheehy. Sheehy, a Republican businessman from Bozeman, announced his candidacy for the Senate last summer with the support of GOP leaders including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Montana U.S. Sen. Steve Daines. 

Addressing reporters after filing his campaign paperwork at the secretary of state’s office in the state Capitol, Rosendale criticized Sheehy as an establishment candidate who doesn’t share his connection to Montana’s Republican base. 

“I think that the Republicans across the state, their No. 1 criteria is to make sure that someone serves as they campaign. Someone that serves and supports the Republican platform. Someone who serves, and just doesn’t talk about conservative principles but actually defends them,” Rosendale said. The candidate was flanked by his wife, Jean, and about 30 supporters, including Montana House Speaker Matt Regier and other Republican lawmakers. 

Rosendale’s long-anticipated announcement coincides with the state GOP’s winter kickoff event, which began Friday morning. He is slated to appear as a featured guest at breakfast Saturday morning. Sheehy is a featured guest Friday evening. 

Rosendale’s candidacy has profound implications for both state and national politics. Republicans need to flip just two seats in the U.S. Senate to re-take control of the chamber, and political observers have identified the three-term incumbent Tester, a rare breed of red-state Democrat, as particularly vulnerable.

That’s in part because Montana has become steadily more Republican in recent years. But it’s also due to the fact that Tester’s fellow Montana U.S. Sen. Steve Daines chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the GOP arm tasked with winning and maintaining a Senate majority. Daines, with the backing of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, helped to recruit Sheehy and land endorsements from prominent Republicans in Montana and Washington both, including Gov. Greg Gianforte and U.S. Rep Ryan Zinke, who represents Montana’s western congressional district. 

Daines has sought to clear the runway for Sheehy, a wealthy political novice, to take on Tester without a bruising primary fight. Rosendale’s candidacy scuttles those plans. 

“It’s unfortunate that rather than building seniority for our great state in the House, Matt is choosing to abandon his seat and create a divisive primary. Tim Sheehy has my full support because he is the best candidate to take on Jon Tester,” Daines said in a statement delivered Friday through an NRSC spokesperson. “Whichever party wins the Montana Senate seat will control the United States Senate in 2024, and Republicans cannot risk nominating a candidate who gave Jon Tester the biggest victory of his career.” 

In Rosendale, Sheehy’s camp and the GOP establishment see a poor fundraiser who previously lost a U.S. Senate race to Tester in 2018 and who betrayed his own party when he helped drive out House Speaker McCarthy last fall. They also worry that Rosendale’s hardline views on issues like abortion, which he favors banning federally without exception, could be a liability in the general election. And, while Rosendale is the epitome of a MAGA-style Republican, he failed to win the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, who threw his support behind Sheehy hours after Rosendale entered the race. (Rosendale repeatedly declined to answer questions Friday about any recent conversations he has had with Trump about his candidacy). 

Only Sheehy, his backers argue, can capture enough independents and moderates in the general election to defeat Tester, a famously prodigious fundraiser with widespread name recognition, high favorability ratings and a proven ability to win elections in environments that otherwise favor Republicans. 

Rosendale’s camp is counting on a constituency that wants an unflinching “movement” conservative. Sheehy, Rosendale has said, represents the “uniparty,” the bipartisan political establishment Rosendale credits with being villainously responsible for maintaining a dysfunctional status quo in Washington, D.C. Speaking to a gaggle of reporters at the Capitol Friday, Rosendale criticized the prominent GOP figures backing Sheehy for, in his view, trying to steer the Senate race rather than letting Montana voters pick their preferred candidate.

“The leadership is trying to select, instead of allowing the people of Montana to select, who is going to be their next U.S. senator,” Rosendale said. “So when you see Mitch McConnell entering into, participating in this election process, and the Senate committee getting so heavily involved, I think it’s offensive to the people across the state. I really do.”

Tester’s campaign and Democrats have hoped a Rosendale-Sheehy primary will prove a costly fight that highlights Tester’s favorability.

“Despite a monthslong pressure campaign from Mitch McConnell and Steve Daines, National Republicans are now saddled with two damaged and out of touch candidates who will face off in an expensive and nasty GOP primary,” said Sarah Guggenheimer, a spokesperson for the Senate Majority PAC, which is backing Tester. “Rep. Matt Rosendale and Tim Sheehy will spend the coming months attacking each other every chance they get. Meanwhile, Montana voters will continue to see why they can always count on Senator Jon Tester to put their interests first.”

The Rosendale, Sheehy, and Tester camps have been locked in a three-way conflict for months, playing out with jabs in the press, leaked polls and backroom maneuvering. 

As recently as Thursday, Rosendale’s then-rumored candidacy was causing drama in the U.S. House of Representatives. House Speaker Mike Johnson, who Rosendale helped install after ousting McCarthy, had told colleagues he would endorse Rosendale despite opposition from other GOP leaders. The Daily Beast reported that the endorsement would come in exchange for Rosendale’s support for an Israel aid bill he had otherwise publicly opposed. Rosendale voted for the bill Tuesday, but Johnson backed off from his plans to publicly endorse Rosendale after pushback from other Republican lawmakers and strategists. Johnson later said through a spokesperson that he would donate to Rosendale’s campaign from his leadership PAC.

Zinke, a Sheehy endorser apparently familiar with the workings of the deal, told Politico that “upon reflection, the speaker withdrew his endorsement largely based on the reality that Rosendale is the weaker candidate by far against Tester.”

The race will almost certainly involve significant political spending in both the primary and general election portions of the contest. A bevy of political committees have already begun dolling out funds.

Both the Senate Leadership Fund and American Crossroads have reserved TV ad space in support of Sheehy to the tune of over $40 million. More Jobs, Less Government, a leadership PAC affiliated with Daines, is similarly planning to invest millions. Montana Policy Action, a PAC affiliated with Republican leadership in Montana, recently took out $182,000 in ads targeting Rosendale. 

Last Best Place PAC, a Democratic-aligned super PAC, has spent millions attacking Sheehy but not Rosendale, a move reminiscent of Democrats’ strategy in 2022 to quietly back GOP election-denying candidates in primaries in hopes that they would be easier to beat in a general election. The Montana Democratic Party itself has taken out web ads appearing to promote Rosendale as the most authentic conservative in the primary, pointing out, for example, his “100% anti-abortion” bona fides. 

In the past, Rosendale has received outside support from the Club for Growth, a billionaire-funded conservative group, though the organization’s plans this year aren’t clear. 

Rosendale’s campaign — until now, technically a House re-election campaign — raised $98,073 in 2023’s fourth quarter, the vast majority of which came from individual donations. He ended the period with about $1.7 million on hand. Tim Sheehy raised about $2.5 million in the same period, of which 60% came from individuals. He has about $1.3 million on hand. 

Tester’s fundraising has dwarfed that of both Republicans. He raised about $5.5 million in the last quarter of 2023, 85% of which came from individuals, and finished the period with more than $11 million on hand.

Former Montana Secretary of State Brad Johnson has also announced a campaign for the seat as a Republican, as has Libertarian Sid Daoud. 

Mara Silvers contributed reporting.

This story was updated Feb. 9, 2024, to include mention of former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of candidate Tim Sheehy.